Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$115.99
+8.69% vs spot
Hold
Spot price
$106.72
Mkt cap $90.71B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$115.23
+7.97% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 21
17 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
UPS · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
UPS · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $169.61 | $123.56 – $337.03 | +58.93% | 19.9% | WACC 4.7%, g₀=0.8%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $63.11 | $58.25 – $83.22 | -40.86% | 14.9% | kₑ 9.1%, g₀=0.8%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $90.06 | $78.99 – $104.73 | -15.61% | — | D₁ 6.30, kₑ 9.1%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $84.64 | $78.99 – $113.83 | -20.69% | — | D₀ 6.30, g₀=0.8%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $87.55 | $74.41 – $100.68 | -17.97% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 0.8% → 2.0%, kₑ 9.1% | high |
| Residual income | income | $29.12 | $25.63 – $32.62 | -72.71% | 10.0% | BV 18.98, ROE 34.3% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $183.30 | $161.31 – $205.30 | +71.76% | 7.0% | IC 42.7B, WACC 4.7% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $76.55 | $65.07 – $88.03 | -28.27% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 11.7 (payout 97%, kₑ 9.1%, g 0.8%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $131.20 | $115.46 – $146.94 | +22.94% | 11.9% | EPS 6.56 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $76.01 | $64.61 – $87.41 | -28.77% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 4.00 · ROE 34.3%, kₑ 9.1% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $206.98 | $175.94 – $238.03 | +93.95% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 103.49 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $154.64 | $136.09 – $173.20 | +44.91% | 10.0% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 26.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $123.51 | $104.98 – $142.03 | +15.73% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $145.11 | $123.34 – $166.87 | +35.97% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $53.51 | $45.49 – $61.54 | -49.86% | 1.0% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 8.2% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $133.34 | $117.34 – $149.34 | +24.94% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $65.01 | $55.25 – $74.76 | -39.09% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $32.80 | $27.88 – $37.72 | -69.27% | 0.5% | PE = g (0.8) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $18.98 | $18.03 – $19.93 | -82.22% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -7.3% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.05)β | × 1.05 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.14% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.13% |
| Effective tax ratet | 22.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.43% |
| Equity weight$16.3B | 33.5% |
| Debt weight$32.3B | 66.5% |
| WACC | 4.68% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 1.56% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 8.16% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -2.28% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -18.24% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 1.07% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 0.77% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $115.23
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.