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Arphra AIPlain-English read on United Parcel Service, Inc.’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | |||||||||
| Revenue | $97.2B | $100.03B | $90.75B | $90.89B | $88.64B | $90.02B | $93.51B | $96.5B | $102.48B |
| Cost of revenue | $79.77B | $79.95B | $73.04B | $73.84B | $72.21B | $74.97B | $76.17B | $79.41B | $85.36B |
| Gross profit | $17.43B | $20.08B | $17.71B | $17.06B | $16.42B | $16.83B | $17.46B | $18.63B | $19.22B |
| Gross margin | +17.93% | +20.07% | +19.51% | +18.77% | +18.53% | +18.70% | +18.67% | +19.31% | +18.76% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| Research & development | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Selling, general & administrative | $4.33B | $7.11B | $8.34B | $8.68B | $8.32B | $8.68B | $8.71B | $9.3B | $9.86B |
| Total operating expenses | $4.33B | $7.11B | $8.34B | $8.37B | $7.95B | $8.08B | $8.66B | $8.58B | $9.28B |
| Operating income | $13.11B | $12.97B | $9.37B | $8.69B | $8.47B | $8.67B | $9.05B | $9.28B | $9.78B |
| Operating margin | +13.48% | +12.96% | +10.33% | +9.56% | +9.56% | +9.63% | +9.67% | +9.62% | +9.54% |
| EBITDA | $20.23B | $18.71B | $12.71B | $11.91B | $12.22B | $12.62B | $12.64B | $13.2B | $14.12B |
| EBIT | $17.28B | $15.52B | $9.35B | $8.3B | $8.47B | $8.89B | $9.2B | $9.49B | $10.02B |
| Below the line | |||||||||
| Interest expense | $683M | $694M | $775M | $861M | $1.01B | $902.09M | $899.84M | $969.27M | $1.03B |
| Interest income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other income / expense | $3.49B | $1.86B | -$798M | -$1.24B | -$1.31B | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | $16.6B | $14.83B | $8.57B | $7.44B | $7.16B | $7.49B | $8.26B | $8.49B | $8.57B |
| Income tax expense | $3.71B | $3.28B | $1.87B | $1.66B | $1.59B | $1.67B | $1.77B | $1.82B | $1.92B |
| Earnings | |||||||||
| Net income | $12.89B | $11.55B | $6.71B | $5.78B | $5.57B | $5.9B | $6.07B | $6.41B | $6.78B |
| Net income · continuing ops | $12.89B | $11.55B | $6.71B | $5.78B | $5.57B | $5.89B | $6.42B | $6.33B | $6.86B |
| Net margin | +13.26% | +11.54% | +7.39% | +6.36% | +6.29% | +6.56% | +6.49% | +6.64% | +6.62% |
| EPS · basic | $14.75 | $13.26 | $7.81 | $6.76 | $6.56 | $7.00 | $7.86 | $8.67 | $10.16 |
| EPS · diluted | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.76 | $6.56 | $7.10 | $7.92 | $8.57 | $10.05 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $6.70 | $7.02 | $8.27 | $9.83 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $7.25 | $8.29 | $8.90 | $10.28 |
| Shares · basic | 874M | 871M | 859M | 855M | 849M | 845.71M | 855.88M | 851.66M | 854.29M |
| Shares · diluted | 878M | 871M | 860M | 856M | 850M | 858.03M | 847.45M | 845.1M | 843.98M |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 18 | 18 | 12 | 11 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 2 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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