Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$121.87
-21.25% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$154.75
Mkt cap $171.28B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$172.00
+11.15% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
TJX · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
TJX · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $206.34 | $135.30 – $348.23 | +33.34% | 22.3% | WACC 5.7%, g₀=12.5%, gₗ=2.5% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $140.03 | $101.70 – $202.16 | -9.51% | 16.8% | kₑ 7.3%, g₀=12.5%, gₗ=2.5% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $34.74 | $28.78 – $43.82 | -77.55% | — | D₁ 1.64, kₑ 7.3%, gₗ 2.5% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $51.71 | $38.62 – $71.63 | -66.59% | — | D₀ 1.64, g₀=12.5%, gₗ=2.5%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $43.54 | $37.01 – $50.07 | -71.87% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 12.5% → 2.5%, kₑ 7.3% | high |
| Residual income | income | $21.36 | $18.80 – $23.93 | -86.20% | 11.2% | BV 9.05, ROE 53.9% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $190.47 | $167.61 – $213.33 | +23.08% | 7.8% | IC 17.4B, WACC 5.7% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $97.60 | $85.89 – $109.31 | -36.93% | 13.4% | EPS 4.88 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $96.56 | $82.08 – $111.05 | -37.60% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 53.65 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $92.27 | $81.20 – $103.34 | -40.38% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 7.3B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $93.05 | $79.09 – $107.01 | -39.87% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $75.63 | $64.28 – $86.97 | -51.13% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $35.52 | $30.19 – $40.85 | -77.05% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 7.3% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $77.81 | $68.48 – $87.15 | -49.72% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $161.11 | $136.94 – $185.27 | +4.11% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $60.91 | $51.77 – $70.05 | -60.64% | 0.6% | PE = g (12.5) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $9.05 | $8.60 – $9.51 | -94.15% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $1.18 | $1.00 – $1.36 | -99.24% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 5.7% · Conservative — modest implied growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.64)β | × 0.64 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.30% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.96% |
| Effective tax ratet | 24.7% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.49% |
| Equity weight$10.2B | 43.0% |
| Debt weight$13.5B | 57.0% |
| WACC | 5.70% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 6.21% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 7.28% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 5.60% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 15.95% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 35.84% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 12.48% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.47% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-01-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $172.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.