Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$76.21
-32.21% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$112.42
Mkt cap $57.22B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$110.83
-1.41% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
20 / 22
11 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
AFL · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
AFL · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $116.64 | $94.64 – $178.73 | +3.76% | 5.0% | WACC 6.1%, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $88.14 | $75.23 – $124.33 | -21.60% | 10.0% | kₑ 7.2%, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $45.25 | $37.97 – $55.97 | -59.75% | 10.0% | D₁ 2.32, kₑ 7.2%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $44.38 | $37.97 – $63.13 | -60.52% | — | D₀ 2.32, g₀=1.6%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $44.84 | $38.11 – $51.56 | -60.12% | 10.0% | 5y schedule 1.6% → 2.0%, kₑ 7.2% | high |
| Residual income | income | $63.89 | $56.22 – $71.55 | -43.17% | 18.0% | BV 57.01, ROE 12.4% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $135.22 | $119.00 – $151.45 | +20.28% | 6.0% | IC 31.7B, WACC 6.1% | high |
| Excess returns | income | $75.63 | $66.56 – $84.71 | -32.72% | 12.0% | BV 57.01, ROE 12.4% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $40.64 | $34.55 – $46.74 | -63.85% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 6.0 (payout 33%, kₑ 7.2%, g 1.6%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $95.62 | $84.15 – $107.09 | -14.94% | 8.0% | EPS 6.83 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $109.26 | $92.87 – $125.65 | -2.81% | 10.0% | Fair P/B 1.92 · ROE 12.4%, kₑ 7.2% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $101.13 | $85.96 – $116.30 | -10.04% | — | Rev/sh 33.71 × peer P/S 3.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $102.62 | $90.31 – $114.94 | -8.71% | — | EBITDA × peer 10.0× − ND 2.2B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $103.48 | $87.96 – $119.00 | -7.95% | — | EBIT × peer 12.0× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $81.78 | $69.51 – $94.04 | -27.26% | — | Sales × peer 2.55× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $34.15 | $29.03 – $39.27 | -69.62% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 3.4% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $117.33 | $103.25 – $131.41 | +4.37% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $78.97 | $67.13 – $90.82 | -29.75% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $34.15 | $29.03 – $39.27 | -69.62% | — | PE = g (1.6) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $57.01 | $54.16 – $59.86 | -49.29% | 5.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 0.5% · Conservative — modest implied growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.62)β | × 0.62 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.22% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 2.62% |
| Effective tax ratet | 17.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.16% |
| Equity weight$29.5B | 77.8% |
| Debt weight$8.4B | 22.2% |
| WACC | 6.10% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | -3.73% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 3.44% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -5.15% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 1.68% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 8.30% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 1.61% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Financial Services (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $110.83
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.