Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$171.72
-15.64% vs spot
Underweight
Spot price
$203.57
Mkt cap $23.97B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$200.25
-1.63% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
20 / 21
17 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
WSM · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
WSM · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $214.02 | $161.91 – $290.77 | +5.13% | 19.9% | WACC 8.4%, g₀=9.4%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $150.20 | $120.00 – $190.97 | -26.21% | 14.9% | kₑ 11.1%, g₀=9.4%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $33.69 | $30.36 – $37.85 | -83.45% | — | D₁ 3.01, kₑ 11.1%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $45.91 | $36.90 – $57.13 | -77.45% | — | D₀ 3.01, g₀=9.4%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $39.66 | $33.71 – $45.60 | -80.52% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 9.4% → 2.0%, kₑ 11.1% | high |
| Residual income | income | $42.10 | $37.05 – $47.15 | -79.32% | 10.0% | BV 19.79, ROE 52.3% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $171.56 | $150.97 – $192.14 | -15.73% | 7.0% | IC 2.5B, WACC 8.4% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $164.47 | $139.80 – $189.14 | -19.21% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 18.6 (payout 29%, kₑ 11.1%, g 9.4%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $176.80 | $155.58 – $198.02 | -13.15% | 11.9% | EPS 8.84 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $496.24 | $421.80 – $570.68 | +143.77% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 25.07 · ROE 52.3%, kₑ 11.1% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $133.54 | $113.51 – $153.57 | -34.40% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 74.19 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $199.34 | $175.42 – $223.26 | -2.08% | 10.0% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 0.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $205.72 | $174.86 – $236.58 | +1.06% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $109.35 | $92.95 – $125.76 | -46.28% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $52.42 | $44.56 – $60.28 | -74.25% | 1.0% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 5.9% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $116.25 | $102.30 – $130.20 | -42.89% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $238.01 | $202.31 – $273.71 | +16.92% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $83.06 | $70.60 – $95.52 | -59.20% | 0.5% | PE = g (9.4) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $19.79 | $18.80 – $20.78 | -90.28% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $7.27 | $6.18 – $8.36 | -96.43% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 10.9% · Reasonable — in line with sector trend | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.49)β | × 1.49 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 11.11% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.96% |
| Effective tax ratet | 25.1% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.47% |
| Equity weight$2.1B | 58.8% |
| Debt weight$1.5B | 41.2% |
| WACC | 8.37% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 4.52% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 5.93% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -1.36% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 4.63% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 37.07% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 9.40% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-01-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $200.25
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.