Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$50.42
-56.44% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$115.75
Mkt cap $922.64B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$137.04
+18.39% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
WMT · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
WMT · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $55.14 | $35.75 – $91.34 | -52.37% | 22.3% | WACC 5.7%, g₀=8.3%, gₗ=2.1% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $35.88 | $26.46 – $50.69 | -69.00% | 16.8% | kₑ 7.4%, g₀=8.3%, gₗ=2.1% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $16.17 | $13.58 – $20.00 | -86.03% | — | D₁ 0.83, kₑ 7.4%, gₗ 2.1% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $21.06 | $15.69 – $28.98 | -81.81% | — | D₀ 0.83, g₀=8.3%, gₗ=2.1%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $18.62 | $15.83 – $21.41 | -83.91% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 8.3% → 2.1%, kₑ 7.4% | high |
| Residual income | income | $15.50 | $13.64 – $17.36 | -86.61% | 11.2% | BV 11.71, ROE 20.6% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $68.21 | $60.02 – $76.39 | -41.07% | 7.8% | IC 162.5B, WACC 5.7% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $60.06 | $52.85 – $67.27 | -48.11% | 13.4% | EPS 2.73 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $125.89 | $107.00 – $144.77 | +8.76% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 78.68 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $65.56 | $57.69 – $73.43 | -43.36% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 56.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $49.06 | $41.70 – $56.42 | -57.61% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $100.79 | $85.67 – $115.90 | -12.93% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $17.29 | $14.70 – $19.88 | -85.06% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 6.3% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $37.13 | $32.68 – $41.59 | -67.92% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $67.66 | $57.51 – $77.81 | -41.55% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $22.69 | $19.28 – $26.09 | -80.40% | 0.6% | PE = g (8.3) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $11.71 | $11.13 – $12.30 | -89.88% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $2.65 | $2.25 – $3.04 | -97.71% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 21.8% · Aggressive — well above sector trend | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.65)β | × 0.65 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.37% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.17% |
| Effective tax ratet | 24.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.15% |
| Equity weight$106.2B | 61.3% |
| Debt weight$67.1B | 38.7% |
| WACC | 5.74% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 5.46% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 6.33% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 5.63% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 13.94% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 13.55% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 8.31% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.14% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2024-01-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $137.04
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.