Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$131.23
-49.56% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$260.15
Mkt cap $37.52B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$188.40
-27.58% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
STLD · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
STLD · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $144.89 | $101.95 – $209.45 | -44.30% | 22.3% | WACC 7.9%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $95.57 | $76.04 – $121.91 | -63.26% | 16.8% | kₑ 11.1%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $25.63 | $23.09 – $28.78 | -90.15% | — | D₁ 2.29, kₑ 11.1%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $54.52 | $45.74 – $65.47 | -79.04% | — | D₀ 2.29, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $41.55 | $35.32 – $47.78 | -84.03% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 11.1% | high |
| Residual income | income | $73.64 | $64.80 – $82.47 | -71.69% | 11.2% | BV 70.27, ROE 13.3% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $289.91 | $255.12 – $324.69 | +11.44% | 7.8% | IC 12.4B, WACC 7.9% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $111.86 | $98.44 – $125.28 | -57.00% | 13.4% | EPS 7.99 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $214.52 | $182.35 – $246.70 | -17.54% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 143.02 × peer P/S 1.50 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $122.65 | $107.93 – $137.37 | -52.85% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 9.0× − ND 3.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $98.35 | $83.59 – $113.10 | -62.20% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 10.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $155.27 | $131.98 – $178.56 | -40.32% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.27× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $319.60 | $271.66 – $367.54 | +22.85% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 91.0% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $79.70 | $70.13 – $89.26 | -69.37% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $382.30 | $324.96 – $439.65 | +46.95% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $199.75 | $169.79 – $229.71 | -23.22% | 0.6% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $70.27 | $66.75 – $73.78 | -72.99% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $33.34 | $28.34 – $38.34 | -87.18% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 41.8% · Heroic — market needs ≥25% FCF growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.49)β | × 1.49 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 11.12% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 1.66% |
| Effective tax ratet | 27.0% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.21% |
| Equity weight$8.9B | 68.0% |
| Debt weight$4.2B | 32.0% |
| WACC | 7.95% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 21.21% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 91.01% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -0.32% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -15.35% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 10.02% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Basic Materials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $188.40
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.