Explain this page
Arphra AIPlain-English read on The Progressive Corporation’s valuationRatios & metrics
Profitability, returns on capital, growth, and credit — all derived from the historical income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow rows in our data warehouse.
Valuation multiples
Price- and EV-based multiples plus shareholder yields. Snapshot at each fiscal year-end from key_metrics (FMP).
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline | ||||||||
| Market cap | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Multiples | ||||||||
| P / E | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P / B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / FCF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yields | ||||||||
| Earnings yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Profitability
Margin structure across the last 5 fiscal years
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margins | ||||||||
| Gross margin | +21.68% | +15.22% | +18.95% | +27.74% | +29.47% | +25.26% | +25.83% | +25.55% |
| Operating margin | +8.83% | +1.86% | +7.90% | +14.22% | +16.23% | +12.78% | +12.41% | +13.11% |
| EBITDA margin | +10.00% | +2.97% | +8.79% | +14.97% | +16.90% | +13.79% | +13.24% | +13.74% |
| EBIT margin | +9.29% | +2.35% | +8.33% | +14.59% | +16.55% | +13.43% | +13.18% | +13.28% |
| Pre-tax margin | +8.83% | +1.86% | +7.90% | +14.22% | +16.23% | +12.88% | +12.94% | +12.57% |
| Net margin | +7.03% | +1.46% | +6.29% | +11.26% | +12.90% | +10.08% | +9.98% | +9.93% |
| Cost structure | ||||||||
| Cost of revenue / sales | +78.32% | +84.78% | +81.05% | +72.26% | +70.53% | +76.21% | +74.83% | +75.18% |
| R&D intensity | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SG&A intensity | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Effective tax rate | +20.41% | +21.69% | +20.41% | +20.84% | +20.49% | +19.95% | +20.28% | +20.31% |
Returns on capital
ROE / ROA / ROC / ROIC over the relevant capital base, plus the 3-step DuPont decomposition of ROE.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | ||||||||
| Return on equity (ROE) | +18.38% | +4.54% | +19.25% | +33.14% | +37.29% | +29.22% | +28.97% | +30.12% |
| Return on assets (ROA) | +4.71% | +0.96% | +4.40% | +8.02% | +9.19% | +7.13% | +7.14% | +6.94% |
| Return on capital (ROC) | +18.20% | +4.14% | +18.05% | +32.98% | +38.21% | +29.25% | +28.34% | +31.13% |
| Return on invested capital (ROIC) | +14.49% | +3.24% | +14.37% | +26.11% | +30.38% | +23.09% | +22.79% | +23.58% |
| Asset turnover | +67.03% | +65.71% | +70.00% | +71.25% | +71.23% | +70.70% | +71.53% | +69.90% |
| DuPont · ROE decomposition | ||||||||
| Net margin | +7.03% | +1.46% | +6.29% | +11.26% | +12.90% | +10.08% | +9.98% | +9.93% |
| Asset turnover (× revenue / assets) | +67.03% | +65.71% | +70.00% | +71.25% | +71.23% | +70.70% | +71.53% | +69.90% |
| Equity multiplier (× assets / equity) | +390.16% | +474.89% | +437.40% | +413.21% | +405.76% | +409.86% | +405.97% | +434.03% |
Activity & efficiency
Turnover ratios and days-outstanding — how efficiently the business converts assets and working capital into sales and cash.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | ||||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| Fixed-asset turnover | 41.92 | 47.96 | 70.47 | 95.37 | 111.92 | — | — | — |
| Inventory turnover | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Receivables turnover | 3.32 | 3.05 | 3.64 | 3.94 | 4.36 | — | — | — |
| Payables turnover | 6.15 | 7.60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Days outstanding | ||||||||
| Days sales outstanding (DSO) | 110.09 | 119.61 | 100.25 | 92.69 | 83.78 | — | — | — |
| Days inventory outstanding (DIO) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Days payables outstanding (DPO) | 59.33 | 48.04 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash conversion cycle | 50.76 | 71.57 | 100.25 | 92.69 | 83.78 | — | — | — |
Cash flow quality
How well reported earnings translate into operating and free cash flow, plus reinvestment intensity.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF / Net income | 2.32 | 9.49 | 2.73 | 1.78 | 1.55 | 1.87 | 1.96 | 1.94 |
| FCF / Net income | 2.24 | 9.08 | 2.66 | 1.75 | 1.52 | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| FCF margin | +15.77% | +13.22% | +16.74% | +19.69% | +19.63% | +18.50% | +18.95% | +19.01% |
| OCF margin | +16.28% | +13.81% | +17.14% | +20.07% | +20.02% | +18.84% | +19.52% | +19.28% |
| CapEx / Revenue | +0.51% | +0.59% | +0.41% | +0.38% | +0.40% | +0.39% | +0.39% | +0.40% |
| CapEx / D&A | 0.72 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 1.11 | — | — | — |
| Stock-based comp / Revenue | +0.21% | +0.25% | +0.20% | +0.16% | +0.00% | — | — | — |
Per-share & shareholder yield
EPS, book value, sales, cash flow and dividends per share — plus payout / retention.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · diluted | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.40 | 19.23 | 16.40 | 16.20 | 15.98 |
| EPS · basic | 5.69 | 1.19 | 6.61 | 14.45 | 19.29 | 16.47 | 16.50 | 16.22 |
| Book value / share | 31.05 | 27.07 | 34.51 | 43.54 | 51.55 | 52.26 | 56.21 | 56.14 |
| Tangible BV / share | 30.08 | 26.53 | 31.25 | 39.82 | 48.08 | 52.26 | 56.21 | 56.14 |
| Sales / share | 81.21 | 84.46 | 105.67 | 128.20 | 148.99 | 151.44 | 163.23 | 170.32 |
| Operating CF / share | 13.22 | 11.67 | 18.12 | 25.73 | 29.83 | 28.54 | 31.86 | 32.83 |
| Free cash flow / share | 12.81 | 11.17 | 17.69 | 25.24 | 29.24 | 28.02 | 30.92 | 32.38 |
| Dividends / share | 6.38 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 1.15 | 4.88 | 2.31 | 2.44 | 2.58 |
| Payout ratio | +111.81% | +32.41% | +6.00% | +7.95% | +25.39% | +15.15% | +14.97% | +15.26% |
| Retention ratio | -11.81% | +67.59% | +94.00% | +92.05% | +74.61% | +84.85% | +85.03% | +84.74% |
Growth
Year-over-year change for headline P&L lines, plus through-cycle CAGR
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 7y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-line | |||||||||
| Revenue · YoY | — | +4.01% | +25.20% | +21.36% | +16.32% | +1.70% | +6.92% | +4.36% | +11.07% |
| Gross profit · YoY | — | -26.98% | +55.86% | +77.68% | +23.59% | -12.84% | +9.31% | +3.23% | +13.71% |
| Profit | |||||||||
| Operating income · YoY | — | -78.10% | +431.89% | +118.45% | +32.76% | -19.95% | +3.84% | +10.25% | +17.52% |
| EBITDA · YoY | — | -69.11% | +270.72% | +106.63% | +31.38% | -17.02% | +2.64% | +8.34% | +16.24% |
| Net income · YoY | — | -78.45% | +440.58% | +117.27% | +33.35% | -20.52% | +5.79% | +3.85% | +16.69% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| EBIT · YoY | — | -73.67% | +343.57% | +112.53% | +31.92% | -17.48% | +5.00% | +5.08% | +16.89% |
| R&D · YoY | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Per-share | |||||||||
| EPS · diluted · YoY | — | -79.15% | +457.63% | +118.84% | +33.54% | -14.74% | -1.16% | -1.36% | +15.99% |
| EPS · basic · YoY | — | -79.09% | +455.46% | +118.61% | +33.49% | -14.60% | +0.15% | -1.67% | +16.15% |
Credit & leverage
Balance-sheet health + interest coverage + liquidity. Coverage ratios use period-end debt and trailing interest expense.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | ||||||||
| Total debt | $4.9B | $6.39B | $6.89B | $6.89B | $6.9B | $8.17B | $8.89B | $9.1B |
| Net debt | $4.71B | $6.18B | $6.8B | $6.75B | $6.77B | $8.03B | $8.75B | $8.95B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.99 | 4.20 | 1.25 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| Debt / equity | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Debt / assets | +6.89% | +8.47% | +7.77% | +6.52% | +5.61% | +6.48% | +6.68% | +6.39% |
| Equity / assets | +25.63% | +21.06% | +22.86% | +24.20% | +24.65% | +24.40% | +24.63% | +23.04% |
| Coverage | ||||||||
| EBITDA / interest expense | 21.80 | 6.03 | 20.36 | 40.42 | 53.29 | 37.27 | 35.13 | 36.18 |
| Operating income / interest | 19.26 | 3.78 | 18.30 | 38.40 | 51.16 | 34.52 | 32.92 | 34.50 |
| Interest expense | $218.6M | $244M | $268M | $279M | $278M | $329.81M | $359.1M | $377.82M |
| Liquidity | ||||||||
| Current ratio | 9.86 | 11.98 | — | — | 0.59 | — | — | — |
| Quick ratio | 9.78 | 11.92 | — | — | 0.58 | — | — | — |
| Cash ratio | 0.03 | 0.04 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | — |
| Working capital | $53.77B | $60.73B | $79.56B | $23.32B | -$28.37B | — | — | — |
| Working capital / revenue | +112.78% | +122.47% | +128.14% | +30.95% | -32.37% | — | — | — |
Methodology. ROE / ROA / ROC use period-end balance-sheet denominators (no average-of- period smoothing). ROIC = Operating Income × (1 − inferred effective tax rate) over invested capital, with the effective tax inferred from net-to-operating income when both are positive and a 25% default otherwise. Net debt / EBITDA, debt ratios, and interest-coverage ratios are calculated point-in-time at each fiscal year-end. TTM = trailing 4 quarters (income / cash flow summed, balance sheet = most-recent quarterly snapshot). Through-cycle CAGR in the Growth panel uses the geometric mean of first-to-last period growth across the window (positive values only).