Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$100.17
-9.24% vs spot
Underweight
Spot price
$110.37
Mkt cap $58.09B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$124.50
+12.80% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
PCAR · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
PCAR · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $135.41 | $108.34 – $174.16 | +22.69% | 22.3% | WACC 9.1%, g₀=12.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $107.34 | $82.86 – $142.38 | -2.75% | 16.8% | kₑ 9.1%, g₀=12.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $59.23 | $51.88 – $69.01 | -46.34% | — | D₁ 4.10, kₑ 9.1%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $88.14 | $69.57 – $112.85 | -20.14% | — | D₀ 4.10, g₀=12.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $73.91 | $62.82 – $84.99 | -33.04% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 12.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 9.1% | high |
| Residual income | income | $37.22 | $32.76 – $41.69 | -66.27% | 11.2% | BV 34.80, ROE 12.3% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $95.65 | $84.17 – $107.13 | -13.34% | 7.8% | IC 10.0B, WACC 9.1% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $90.20 | $79.38 – $101.02 | -18.27% | 13.4% | EPS 4.51 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $102.78 | $87.37 – $118.20 | -6.87% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 51.39 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $115.30 | $101.47 – $129.14 | +4.47% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND -9.3B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $100.19 | $85.16 – $115.22 | -9.22% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $104.08 | $88.47 – $119.70 | -5.69% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $116.53 | $99.05 – $134.01 | +5.58% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 25.8% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $66.14 | $58.21 – $74.08 | -40.07% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $144.23 | $122.60 – $165.87 | +30.68% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $53.93 | $45.84 – $62.02 | -51.14% | 0.6% | PE = g (12.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $34.80 | $33.06 – $36.54 | -68.47% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $15.79 | $13.42 – $18.16 | -85.69% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 4.6% · Conservative — modest implied growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.03)β | × 1.03 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.05% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.96% |
| Effective tax ratet | 16.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.98% |
| Equity weight$19.3B | 100.0% |
| Debt weight$0.0B | 0.0% |
| WACC | 9.05% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 0.75% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 25.84% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 4.87% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 6.02% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 0.56% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 11.96% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $124.50
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.