Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$62.58
-11.66% vs spot
Underweight
Spot price
$70.84
Mkt cap $27.18B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$92.00
+29.87% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
14 / 16
11 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
OTIS · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
OTIS · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $69.58 | $53.29 – $93.27 | -1.78% | 29.1% | kₑ 8.7%, g₀=11.3%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $23.71 | $20.62 – $27.90 | -66.53% | — | D₁ 1.55, kₑ 8.7%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $34.53 | $26.99 – $44.73 | -51.26% | — | D₀ 1.55, g₀=11.3%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $29.19 | $24.81 – $33.57 | -58.79% | 9.7% | 5y schedule 11.3% → 2.0%, kₑ 8.7% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $70.00 | $61.60 – $78.40 | -1.19% | 23.3% | EPS 3.50 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $69.13 | $58.76 – $79.50 | -2.42% | 5.8% | Rev/sh 34.56 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $53.53 | $47.11 – $59.95 | -24.43% | 19.4% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 7.7B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $61.36 | $52.16 – $70.57 | -13.38% | 3.9% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $40.43 | $34.36 – $46.49 | -42.93% | 3.9% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $68.53 | $58.25 – $78.81 | -3.26% | 1.9% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 19.6% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $209.74 | $184.57 – $234.91 | +196.07% | 1.0% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $107.42 | $91.31 – $123.53 | +51.64% | 1.0% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $39.57 | $33.63 – $45.50 | -44.15% | 1.0% | PE = g (11.3) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | -$12.62 | -$11.99 – -$13.26 | -117.82% | — | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 26.9% · Heroic — market needs ≥25% FCF growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.94)β | × 0.94 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.67% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 2.24% |
| Effective tax ratet | 24.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.70% |
| Equity weight$-5.3B | -151.5% |
| Debt weight$8.8B | 251.5% |
| WACC | 1.70% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 5.09% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 19.58% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 0.23% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 4.90% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | — |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 11.30% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $92.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.