Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$103.05
-51.19% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$211.14
Mkt cap $5.11T
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$278.83
+32.06% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
12 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
NVDA · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
NVDA · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $137.56 | $105.56 – $183.94 | -34.85% | 23.4% | WACC 13.6%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=7.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $120.39 | $93.97 – $157.47 | -42.98% | 19.1% | kₑ 14.5%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=7.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $0.61 | $0.54 – $0.71 | -99.71% | — | D₁ 0.04, kₑ 14.5%, gₗ 7.0% | low |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $1.12 | $0.92 – $1.40 | -99.47% | — | D₀ 0.04, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=7.0%, H 5y | low |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $0.89 | $0.75 – $1.02 | -99.58% | 4.3% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 7.0%, kₑ 14.5% | low |
| Residual income | income | $21.43 | $18.86 – $24.00 | -89.85% | 12.8% | BV 6.89, ROE 76.3% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $118.60 | $104.36 – $132.83 | -43.83% | 8.5% | IC 158.1B, WACC 13.6% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $137.20 | $120.74 – $153.66 | -35.02% | 10.6% | EPS 4.90 × peer P/E 28.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $56.72 | $48.21 – $65.22 | -73.14% | — | Rev/sh 9.45 × peer P/S 6.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $126.52 | $111.34 – $141.70 | -40.08% | 10.6% | EBITDA × peer 20.0× − ND 0.8B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $136.95 | $116.41 – $157.49 | -35.14% | — | EBIT × peer 24.0× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $48.17 | $40.95 – $55.40 | -77.18% | 5.3% | Sales × peer 5.10× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $196.00 | $166.60 – $225.40 | -7.17% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 81.1% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $35.54 | $31.27 – $39.80 | -83.17% | 1.1% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $234.45 | $199.28 – $269.62 | +11.04% | 1.1% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $122.50 | $104.13 – $140.88 | -41.98% | 1.1% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $6.89 | $6.54 – $7.23 | -96.74% | 2.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $4.31 | $3.66 – $4.96 | -97.96% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 38.3% · Heroic — market needs ≥25% FCF growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (2.24)β | × 2.24 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 14.47% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 2.27% |
| Effective tax ratet | 15.1% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.93% |
| Equity weight$157.3B | 93.2% |
| Debt weight$11.4B | 6.8% |
| WACC | 13.62% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 80.30% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 81.08% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 68.30% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 89.50% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 75.71% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 7.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2024-01-25)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Technology (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $278.83
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.