Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$134.35
-55.95% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$304.96
Mkt cap $68.49B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$332.00
+8.87% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 20
16 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
NSC · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
NSC · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $121.95 | $96.67 – $205.70 | -60.01% | 20.1% | WACC 6.8%, g₀=0.9%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $78.28 | $72.85 – $100.73 | -74.33% | 15.1% | kₑ 10.2%, g₀=0.9%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $64.65 | $57.65 – $73.58 | -78.80% | — | D₁ 5.22, kₑ 10.2%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $61.30 | $57.65 – $80.60 | -79.90% | — | D₀ 5.22, g₀=0.9%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $63.11 | $53.64 – $72.58 | -79.31% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 0.9% → 2.0%, kₑ 10.2% | high |
| Residual income | income | $79.26 | $69.75 – $88.77 | -74.01% | 10.1% | BV 66.79, ROE 18.5% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $144.79 | $127.42 – $162.17 | -52.52% | 7.0% | IC 31.1B, WACC 6.8% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $58.58 | $49.80 – $67.37 | -80.79% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 4.6 (payout 42%, kₑ 10.2%, g 0.9%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $255.00 | $224.40 – $285.60 | -16.38% | 12.1% | EPS 12.75 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $126.06 | $107.15 – $144.96 | -58.66% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 1.89 · ROE 18.5%, kₑ 10.2% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $104.65 | $88.96 – $120.35 | -65.68% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 52.33 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $259.88 | $228.70 – $291.07 | -14.78% | 10.1% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 15.6B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $201.78 | $171.51 – $232.05 | -33.83% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $22.12 | $18.80 – $25.44 | -92.75% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $132.45 | $116.56 – $148.35 | -56.57% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $130.69 | $111.09 – $150.29 | -57.15% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $63.75 | $54.19 – $73.31 | -79.10% | 0.5% | PE = g (0.9) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $66.79 | $63.45 – $70.13 | -78.10% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $10.46 | $8.89 – $12.03 | -96.57% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 16.3% · Aggressive — well above sector trend | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.29)β | × 1.29 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 10.24% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.64% |
| Effective tax ratet | 21.5% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.64% |
| Equity weight$15.5B | 47.6% |
| Debt weight$17.1B | 52.4% |
| WACC | 6.78% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 4.25% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -4.81% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 2.25% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 1.30% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 10.66% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 0.94% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $332.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.