Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$29.26
+22.40% vs spot
Buy
Spot price
$23.91
Mkt cap $7.6B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$31.25
+30.73% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
17 / 17
14 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
MOS · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
MOS · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $15.45 | $13.25 – $18.53 | -35.37% | — | D₁ 0.91, kₑ 8.0%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $10.15 | $13.25 – $14.90 | -57.55% | — | D₀ 0.91, g₀=-5.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $13.08 | $11.12 – $15.04 | -45.28% | 7.8% | 5y schedule -5.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 8.0% | high |
| Residual income | income | $36.61 | $32.22 – $41.00 | +53.14% | 15.5% | BV 39.75, ROE 4.4% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $5.60 | $4.93 – $6.27 | -76.57% | 10.9% | IC 17.2B, WACC 6.5% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $6.44 | $5.47 – $7.40 | -73.08% | 9.3% | Fair P/E 3.8 (payout 52%, kₑ 8.0%, g -5.0%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $23.80 | $20.94 – $26.66 | -0.44% | 18.6% | EPS 1.70 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $28.77 | $24.45 – $33.08 | +20.34% | 7.8% | Fair P/B 0.72 · ROE 4.4%, kₑ 8.0% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $58.73 | $49.92 – $67.54 | +145.69% | 4.7% | Rev/sh 39.16 × peer P/S 1.50 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $60.15 | $52.93 – $67.36 | +151.60% | 15.5% | EBITDA × peer 9.0× − ND 5.0B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $20.58 | $17.49 – $23.66 | -13.92% | 3.1% | EBIT × peer 10.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $33.67 | $28.62 – $38.72 | +40.85% | 3.1% | Sales × peer 1.27× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $22.37 | $19.68 – $25.05 | -6.43% | 0.8% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $14.26 | $12.12 – $16.39 | -40.37% | 0.8% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $8.50 | $7.23 – $9.77 | -64.44% | 0.8% | PE = g (-5.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $39.75 | $37.76 – $41.73 | +66.27% | 1.6% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $16.16 | $13.73 – $18.58 | -32.41% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.80)β | × 0.80 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.01% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.12% |
| Effective tax ratet | 26.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.04% |
| Equity weight$12.2B | 69.9% |
| Debt weight$5.3B | 30.1% |
| WACC | 6.52% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 5.87% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -52.09% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -0.62% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -20.57% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 2.13% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | -5.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Basic Materials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $31.25
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.