Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$708.25
+123.32% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$317.14
Mkt cap $316.23B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$408.08
+28.68% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 21
17 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
HD · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
HD · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $883.96 | $467.18 – $2,381.19 | +178.73% | 19.9% | WACC 3.8%, g₀=8.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $205.19 | $158.13 – $272.92 | -35.30% | 14.9% | kₑ 8.9%, g₀=8.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $132.70 | $115.94 – $155.14 | -58.16% | — | D₁ 9.00, kₑ 8.9%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $175.35 | $136.14 – $227.80 | -44.71% | — | D₀ 9.00, g₀=8.6%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $153.80 | $130.73 – $176.87 | -51.51% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 8.6% → 2.0%, kₑ 8.9% | high |
| Residual income | income | $49.52 | $43.58 – $55.47 | -84.38% | 10.0% | BV 12.60, ROE 110.5% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $940.48 | $827.62 – $1,053.34 | +196.55% | 7.0% | IC 76.8B, WACC 3.8% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $2,770.04 | $2,354.53 – $3,185.55 | +773.44% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 194.7 (payout 65%, kₑ 8.9%, g 8.6%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $284.60 | $250.45 – $318.75 | -10.26% | 11.9% | EPS 14.23 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $3,561.14 | $3,026.97 – $4,095.31 | +1022.89% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 282.71 · ROE 110.5%, kₑ 8.9% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $291.42 | $247.71 – $335.13 | -8.11% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 161.90 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $247.51 | $217.81 – $277.22 | -21.95% | 10.0% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 64.0B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $257.50 | $218.87 – $296.12 | -18.81% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $184.83 | $157.10 – $212.55 | -41.72% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $72.43 | $61.57 – $83.30 | -77.16% | 1.0% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 5.1% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $347.33 | $305.65 – $389.02 | +9.52% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $359.53 | $305.60 – $413.46 | +13.37% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $121.74 | $103.48 – $140.00 | -61.61% | 0.5% | PE = g (8.6) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $12.60 | $11.97 – $13.23 | -96.03% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -10.9% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.00)β | × 1.00 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.92% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.69% |
| Effective tax ratet | 23.9% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 2.81% |
| Equity weight$12.8B | 16.4% |
| Debt weight$65.3B | 83.6% |
| WACC | 3.81% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 3.84% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 5.09% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 2.17% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -2.16% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 39.05% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 8.56% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2024-02-01)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $408.08
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.