Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$1,786.27
+691.12% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$225.79
Mkt cap $25.85B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$272.35
+20.62% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
17 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
EXPE · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
EXPE · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $5,982.60 | $2,632.24 – $14,034.22 | +2549.63% | 22.3% | WACC 5.5%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=4.5% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $900.45 | $674.99 – $1,241.47 | +298.80% | 16.8% | kₑ 10.3%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=4.5% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $27.62 | $23.55 – $33.38 | -87.77% | — | D₁ 1.53, kₑ 10.3%, gₗ 4.5% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $54.77 | $43.33 – $70.98 | -75.74% | — | D₀ 1.53, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=4.5%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $42.75 | $36.34 – $49.17 | -81.06% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 4.5%, kₑ 10.3% | high |
| Residual income | income | $42.58 | $37.47 – $47.69 | -81.14% | 11.2% | BV 19.52, ROE 50.8% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $2,645.74 | $2,328.25 – $2,963.23 | +1071.77% | 7.8% | IC 2.2B, WACC 5.5% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $196.20 | $172.66 – $219.74 | -13.11% | 13.4% | EPS 9.81 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $203.20 | $172.72 – $233.68 | -10.01% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 112.89 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $287.73 | $253.20 – $322.26 | +27.43% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND -0.3B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $238.78 | $202.97 – $274.60 | +5.75% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $175.07 | $148.81 – $201.33 | -22.46% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $392.40 | $333.54 – $451.26 | +73.79% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 100.6% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $228.18 | $200.80 – $255.56 | +1.06% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $469.38 | $398.98 – $539.79 | +107.89% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $245.25 | $208.46 – $282.04 | +8.62% | 0.6% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $19.52 | $18.54 – $20.49 | -91.36% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.30)β | × 1.30 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 10.26% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.48% |
| Effective tax ratet | 18.2% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.67% |
| Equity weight$2.5B | 27.6% |
| Debt weight$6.7B | 72.4% |
| WACC | 5.49% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 8.66% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 100.61% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 14.41% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 65.10% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 42.95% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 4.46% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $272.35
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.