Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$48.93
-13.73% vs spot
Underweight
Spot price
$56.72
Mkt cap $7.92B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$74.00
+30.47% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 20
16 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
AOS · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
AOS · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $53.57 | $44.14 – $70.19 | -5.55% | 20.1% | WACC 9.5%, g₀=3.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $49.83 | $41.36 – $64.64 | -12.15% | 15.1% | kₑ 9.9%, g₀=3.6%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $17.02 | $15.11 – $19.50 | -69.98% | — | D₁ 1.32, kₑ 9.9%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $18.40 | $15.11 – $23.94 | -67.56% | — | D₀ 1.32, g₀=3.6%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $17.67 | $15.02 – $20.32 | -68.84% | 5.0% | 5y schedule 3.6% → 2.0%, kₑ 9.9% | high |
| Residual income | income | $18.43 | $16.22 – $20.64 | -67.51% | 10.1% | BV 12.50, ROE 29.4% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $42.44 | $37.34 – $47.53 | -25.18% | 7.0% | IC 1.9B, WACC 9.5% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $22.98 | $19.53 – $26.42 | -59.49% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 6.0 (payout 36%, kₑ 9.9%, g 3.6%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $77.20 | $67.94 – $86.46 | +36.11% | 12.1% | EPS 3.86 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $51.59 | $43.85 – $59.33 | -9.05% | 5.0% | Fair P/B 4.13 · ROE 29.4%, kₑ 9.9% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $51.53 | $43.80 – $59.26 | -9.14% | 3.0% | Rev/sh 25.77 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $69.16 | $60.86 – $77.46 | +21.94% | 10.1% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 0.0B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $76.28 | $64.84 – $87.72 | +34.49% | 2.0% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $43.69 | $37.13 – $50.24 | -22.98% | 2.0% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $39.52 | $34.78 – $44.26 | -30.33% | 0.5% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $60.16 | $51.14 – $69.19 | +6.07% | 0.5% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $19.30 | $16.41 – $22.20 | -65.97% | 0.5% | PE = g (3.6) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $12.50 | $11.87 – $13.12 | -77.96% | 1.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $6.51 | $5.53 – $7.49 | -88.52% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 3.5% · Conservative — modest implied growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.22)β | × 1.22 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.89% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 7.03% |
| Effective tax ratet | 23.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 5.38% |
| Equity weight$1.9B | 90.6% |
| Debt weight$0.2B | 9.4% |
| WACC | 9.47% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 2.27% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -1.96% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 2.00% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 6.33% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 18.86% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 3.65% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $74.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.