Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$232.40
+191.30% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$79.78
Mkt cap $38.45B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$60.00
-24.79% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
ADM · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
ADM · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $493.00 | $352.36 – $720.96 | +517.95% | 22.3% | WACC 6.8%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $424.94 | $310.08 – $607.90 | +432.65% | 16.8% | kₑ 7.0%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $44.15 | $36.84 – $55.08 | -44.66% | — | D₁ 2.18, kₑ 7.0%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $93.92 | $72.95 – $125.28 | +17.72% | — | D₀ 2.18, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $72.73 | $61.82 – $83.64 | -8.84% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 7.0% | high |
| Residual income | income | $48.24 | $42.45 – $54.03 | -39.54% | 11.2% | BV 50.87, ROE 4.7% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $106.37 | $93.60 – $119.13 | +33.32% | 7.8% | IC 30.4B, WACC 6.8% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $49.06 | $43.17 – $54.95 | -38.51% | 13.4% | EPS 2.23 × peer P/E 22.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $283.72 | $241.17 – $326.28 | +255.63% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 177.33 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $77.93 | $68.58 – $87.28 | -2.32% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 14.0× − ND 7.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $36.51 | $31.04 – $41.99 | -54.23% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 16.8× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $224.83 | $191.10 – $258.55 | +181.81% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $89.20 | $75.82 – $102.58 | +11.81% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 106.4% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $23.10 | $20.33 – $25.88 | -71.04% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $106.70 | $90.70 – $122.71 | +33.74% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $55.75 | $47.39 – $64.11 | -30.12% | 0.6% | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $50.87 | $48.33 – $53.41 | -36.24% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $28.57 | $24.29 – $32.86 | -64.19% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -12.7% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.58)β | × 0.58 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.04% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 7.28% |
| Effective tax ratet | 14.5% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 6.22% |
| Equity weight$23.0B | 73.2% |
| Debt weight$8.4B | 26.8% |
| WACC | 6.82% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 7.65% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 106.35% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | -1.49% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -17.40% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 0.40% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $60.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.