Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$47.15
-70.57% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$160.23
Mkt cap $54.03B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$227.60
+42.05% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
16 / 18
7 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
VST · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
VST · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | -$33.80 | -$41.55 – -$20.26 | -121.10% | — | WACC 6.1%, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $10.67 | $9.60 – $12.02 | -93.34% | 13.3% | D₁ 0.93, kₑ 10.9%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $22.71 | $19.00 – $27.34 | -85.83% | — | D₀ 0.93, g₀=25.0%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $17.32 | $14.72 – $19.92 | -89.19% | 24.0% | 5y schedule 25.0% → 2.0%, kₑ 10.9% | high |
| Residual income | income | $18.25 | $16.06 – $20.44 | -88.61% | 13.3% | BV 15.57, ROE 18.5% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $126.81 | $111.59 – $142.03 | -20.86% | 6.7% | IC 24.7B, WACC 6.1% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $39.78 | $35.01 – $44.55 | -75.17% | 16.0% | EPS 2.21 × peer P/E 18.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $113.81 | $96.73 – $130.88 | -28.97% | — | Rev/sh 51.73 × peer P/S 2.20 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $116.41 | $102.44 – $130.38 | -27.35% | 20.0% | EBITDA × peer 11.0× − ND 19.6B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | -$5.96 | -$5.07 – -$6.86 | -103.72% | — | EBIT × peer 13.2× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $37.06 | $31.50 – $42.62 | -76.87% | — | Sales × peer 1.87× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $88.40 | $75.14 – $101.66 | -44.83% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 304.0% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | -$3.35 | -$2.95 – -$3.75 | -102.09% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $105.74 | $89.88 – $121.60 | -34.01% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $55.25 | $46.96 – $63.54 | -65.52% | — | PE = g (25.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $15.57 | $14.80 – $16.35 | -90.28% | 6.7% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g 50.0% · Heroic — market needs ≥25% FCF growth | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.45)β | × 1.45 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 10.91% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 5.78% |
| Effective tax ratet | 15.9% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.86% |
| Equity weight$5.1B | 20.0% |
| Debt weight$20.4B | 80.0% |
| WACC | 6.07% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 39.02% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 304.00% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 6.22% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -21.43% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 12.49% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 25.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Utilities (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $227.60
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.