Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$1,124.10
+879.18% vs spot
Strong Buy
Spot price
$114.80
Mkt cap $37.26B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$136.10
+18.55% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
13 / 15
13 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
UAL · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
UAL · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $3,102.09 | $829.57 – $3,552.84 | +2602.17% | 24.0% | WACC 5.3%, g₀=14.5%, gₗ=4.8% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $191.18 | $140.31 – $272.08 | +66.53% | 18.0% | kₑ 9.8%, g₀=14.5%, gₗ=4.8% | high |
| Residual income | income | $76.13 | $66.99 – $85.26 | -33.69% | 12.0% | BV 58.42, ROE 21.9% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $2,892.06 | $2,545.02 – $3,239.11 | +2419.22% | 8.4% | IC 40.4B, WACC 5.3% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $204.40 | $179.87 – $228.93 | +78.05% | 14.4% | EPS 10.22 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $451.64 | $383.90 – $519.39 | +293.42% | 3.6% | Rev/sh 225.82 × peer P/S 2.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $278.64 | $245.21 – $312.08 | +142.72% | 12.0% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 25.1B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $185.14 | $157.37 – $212.91 | +61.27% | 2.4% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $287.96 | $244.77 – $331.16 | +150.84% | 2.4% | Sales × peer 1.70× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $169.18 | $148.88 – $189.48 | +47.37% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $378.96 | $322.12 – $435.80 | +230.10% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $148.63 | $126.33 – $170.92 | +29.47% | 0.6% | PE = g (14.5) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $58.42 | $55.50 – $61.34 | -49.11% | 1.2% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -20.0% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.21)β | × 1.21 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 9.84% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.93% |
| Effective tax ratet | 22.0% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.07% |
| Equity weight$15.3B | 33.0% |
| Debt weight$31.0B | 67.0% |
| WACC | 5.30% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 13.32% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -9.43% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 24.44% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 66.10% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 21.94% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 14.54% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 4.80% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Industrials (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $136.10
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.