Explain this page
Arphra AIPlain-English read on Simon Property Group, Inc.’s valuationOverview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$144.10
-29.68% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$204.91
Mkt cap $66.45B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$197.00
-3.86% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 20
9 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
SPG · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
SPG · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $268.75 | $262.14 – $650.30 | +31.16% | 10.5% | WACC 4.7%, g₀=-5.0%, gₗ=2.4% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $75.39 | $90.90 – $96.89 | -63.21% | 10.5% | kₑ 10.5%, g₀=-5.0%, gₗ=2.4% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $109.79 | $97.75 – $125.22 | -46.42% | 10.5% | D₁ 8.70, kₑ 10.5%, gₗ 2.4% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $70.02 | $97.75 – $98.19 | -65.83% | — | D₀ 8.70, g₀=-5.0%, gₗ=2.4%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $92.38 | $78.52 – $106.23 | -54.92% | 18.9% | 5y schedule -5.0% → 2.4%, kₑ 10.5% | high |
| Residual income | income | $52.02 | $45.78 – $58.26 | -74.61% | 5.3% | BV 20.89, ROE 68.8% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $102.92 | $90.57 – $115.28 | -49.77% | 5.3% | IC 35.1B, WACC 4.7% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $52.32 | $44.47 – $60.16 | -74.47% | — | Fair P/E 3.7 (payout 61%, kₑ 10.5%, g -5.0%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $395.92 | $348.41 – $443.43 | +93.22% | 7.4% | EPS 14.14 × peer P/E 28.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $99.27 | $84.38 – $114.16 | -51.56% | — | Fair P/B 4.75 · ROE 68.8%, kₑ 10.5% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $99.16 | $84.29 – $114.03 | -51.61% | — | Rev/sh 19.83 × peer P/S 5.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $352.32 | $310.04 – $394.60 | +71.94% | 10.5% | EBITDA × peer 18.0× − ND 28.4B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $125.34 | $106.54 – $144.14 | -38.83% | — | EBIT × peer 21.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | -$4.10 | -$3.48 – -$4.71 | -102.00% | — | Sales × peer 4.25× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $122.23 | $107.56 – $136.89 | -40.35% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $118.57 | $100.79 – $136.36 | -42.13% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $70.70 | $60.10 – $81.30 | -65.50% | — | PE = g (-5.0) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $20.89 | $19.85 – $21.94 | -89.80% | 21.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -8.9% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.36)β | × 1.36 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 10.54% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 3.34% |
| Effective tax ratet | 0.7% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.32% |
| Equity weight$6.7B | 18.7% |
| Debt weight$29.2B | 81.3% |
| WACC | 4.67% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 3.38% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -52.21% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 5.61% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 19.91% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 27.17% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | -5.00% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.42% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Real Estate (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $197.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.