Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$42.58
-4.86% vs spot
Hold
Spot price
$44.75
Mkt cap $39.47B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$51.67
+15.46% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
19 / 21
11 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
PYPL · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
PYPL · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $109.94 | $82.28 – $151.73 | +145.69% | 5.0% | WACC 8.4%, g₀=6.2%, gₗ=2.5% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $74.37 | $58.74 – $95.94 | +66.19% | 10.0% | kₑ 10.7%, g₀=6.2%, gₗ=2.5% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $1.61 | $1.43 – $1.83 | -96.41% | 10.0% | D₁ 0.13, kₑ 10.7%, gₗ 2.5% | low |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $1.89 | $1.48 – $2.42 | -95.77% | — | D₀ 0.13, g₀=6.2%, gₗ=2.5%, H 5y | low |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $1.74 | $1.48 – $2.01 | -96.10% | 10.0% | 5y schedule 6.2% → 2.5%, kₑ 10.7% | low |
| Residual income | income | $27.63 | $24.32 – $30.95 | -38.26% | 18.0% | BV 19.97, ROE 25.8% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $77.24 | $67.97 – $86.51 | +72.61% | 6.0% | IC 22.2B, WACC 8.4% | high |
| Excess returns | income | $31.35 | $27.59 – $35.12 | -29.94% | 12.0% | BV 19.97, ROE 25.8% | high |
| Justified P/E | multiple | $3.15 | $2.68 – $3.63 | -92.95% | 6.0% | Fair P/E 0.6 (payout 2%, kₑ 10.7%, g 6.2%) | med |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $75.74 | $66.65 – $84.83 | +69.25% | 8.0% | EPS 5.41 × peer P/E 14.0 | med |
| Justified P/B | multiple | $86.89 | $73.86 – $99.93 | +94.17% | 10.0% | Fair P/B 4.35 · ROE 25.8%, kₑ 10.7% | high |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $98.14 | $83.42 – $112.86 | +119.30% | — | Rev/sh 32.71 × peer P/S 3.00 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $73.98 | $65.10 – $82.86 | +65.32% | — | EBITDA × peer 10.0× − ND 1.9B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $69.86 | $59.38 – $80.34 | +56.11% | — | EBIT × peer 12.0× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $81.50 | $69.28 – $93.73 | +82.13% | — | Sales × peer 2.55× − ND | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $57.54 | $50.63 – $64.44 | +28.58% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $111.11 | $94.44 – $127.77 | +148.28% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $33.32 | $28.32 – $38.32 | -25.55% | — | PE = g (6.2) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $19.97 | $18.98 – $20.97 | -55.36% | 5.0% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | — | — | — | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -16.9% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (1.40)β | × 1.40 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 10.68% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.42% |
| Effective tax ratet | 16.8% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 3.67% |
| Equity weight$20.3B | 67.0% |
| Debt weight$10.0B | 33.0% |
| WACC | 8.37% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 3.62% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | -1.85% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 6.93% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 11.34% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 25.19% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 6.16% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.50% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-12-31)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Financial Services (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $51.67
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.