Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$234.87
+7.29% vs spot
Hold
Spot price
$218.91
Mkt cap $19.5B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$245.00
+11.92% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
18 / 19
15 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
PKG · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
PKG · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $408.99 | $248.59 – $758.50 | +86.83% | 22.3% | WACC 4.9%, g₀=11.8%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $186.68 | $141.25 – $254.28 | -14.72% | 16.8% | kₑ 8.2%, g₀=11.8%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $83.75 | $72.05 – $99.97 | -61.74% | — | D₁ 5.06, kₑ 8.2%, gₗ 2.0% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $123.80 | $95.92 – $162.49 | -43.45% | — | D₀ 5.06, g₀=11.8%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $104.22 | $88.58 – $119.85 | -52.39% | 5.6% | 5y schedule 11.8% → 2.0%, kₑ 8.2% | high |
| Residual income | income | $61.82 | $54.40 – $69.24 | -71.76% | 11.2% | BV 51.74, ROE 16.7% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $438.96 | $386.29 – $491.64 | +100.52% | 7.8% | IC 8.4B, WACC 4.9% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $171.60 | $151.01 – $192.19 | -21.61% | 13.4% | EPS 8.58 × peer P/E 20.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $182.08 | $154.77 – $209.39 | -16.83% | 3.4% | Rev/sh 101.15 × peer P/S 1.80 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $214.26 | $188.54 – $239.97 | -2.13% | 11.2% | EBITDA × peer 13.0× − ND 3.8B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $177.21 | $150.63 – $203.79 | -19.05% | 2.2% | EBIT × peer 15.6× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $111.60 | $94.86 – $128.34 | -49.02% | 2.2% | Sales × peer 1.53× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $177.03 | $150.47 – $203.58 | -19.13% | 1.1% | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 20.6% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $176.86 | $155.64 – $198.09 | -19.21% | 0.6% | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $270.97 | $230.33 – $311.62 | +23.78% | 0.6% | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $100.87 | $85.74 – $116.00 | -53.92% | 0.6% | PE = g (11.8) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $51.74 | $49.15 – $54.33 | -76.36% | 1.1% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $16.65 | $14.15 – $19.14 | -92.40% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -0.4% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.83)β | × 0.83 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 8.16% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 1.81% |
| Effective tax ratet | 24.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.37% |
| Equity weight$4.6B | 51.3% |
| Debt weight$4.4B | 48.7% |
| WACC | 4.85% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 10.92% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 20.63% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 3.84% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -0.72% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 6.94% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 11.76% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2022-12-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Cyclical (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $245.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.