Explain this page
Arphra AIPlain-English read on Eli Lilly and Company’s valuationRatios & metrics
Profitability, returns on capital, growth, and credit — all derived from the historical income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow rows in our data warehouse.
Valuation multiples
Price- and EV-based multiples plus shareholder yields. Snapshot at each fiscal year-end from key_metrics (FMP).
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline | |||||||||
| Market cap | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Multiples | |||||||||
| P / E | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P / B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / FCF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yields | |||||||||
| Earnings yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Profitability
Margin structure across the last 5 fiscal years
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | +74.18% | +76.77% | +79.25% | +81.31% | +83.79% | +81.26% | +83.85% | +79.98% | +82.57% |
| Operating margin | +28.01% | +30.32% | +31.61% | +38.86% | +45.56% | +38.67% | +38.74% | +38.52% | +38.45% |
| EBITDA margin | +28.40% | +30.34% | +25.11% | +33.81% | +42.86% | +38.77% | +39.61% | +39.41% | +39.60% |
| EBIT margin | +22.94% | +25.01% | +20.63% | +29.88% | +40.46% | +31.13% | +31.11% | +29.73% | +30.12% |
| Pre-tax margin | +21.74% | +23.85% | +19.21% | +28.15% | +39.48% | +28.47% | +29.29% | +29.13% | +29.72% |
| Net margin | +19.71% | +21.88% | +15.36% | +23.51% | +31.66% | +23.54% | +23.76% | +23.84% | +23.87% |
| Cost structure | |||||||||
| Cost of revenue / sales | +25.82% | +23.23% | +20.75% | +18.69% | +16.21% | +18.32% | +18.33% | +18.59% | +18.13% |
| R&D intensity | +24.47% | +25.19% | +27.29% | +24.40% | +20.46% | +23.65% | +24.11% | +24.42% | +23.73% |
| SG&A intensity | +21.69% | +21.26% | +20.34% | +18.05% | +17.02% | +18.33% | +18.87% | +18.23% | +17.97% |
| Effective tax rate | +9.32% | +8.25% | +20.05% | +16.49% | +19.79% | +19.08% | +18.88% | +19.20% | +18.30% |
Returns on capital
ROE / ROA / ROC / ROIC over the relevant capital base, plus the 3-step DuPont decomposition of ROE.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| Return on equity (ROE) | +60.97% | +57.95% | +48.24% | +74.20% | +77.78% | +67.38% | +66.21% | +67.19% | +69.55% |
| Return on assets (ROA) | +11.44% | +12.62% | +8.19% | +13.45% | +18.35% | +12.83% | +13.60% | +13.41% | +13.33% |
| Return on capital (ROC) | +30.47% | +32.03% | +29.89% | +36.53% | +43.01% | +36.63% | +35.85% | +36.09% | +36.62% |
| Return on invested capital (ROIC) | +21.44% | +23.12% | +14.52% | +22.10% | +29.89% | +22.30% | +21.99% | +22.34% | +22.73% |
| Asset turnover | +58.02% | +57.67% | +53.31% | +57.22% | +57.95% | +54.51% | +57.23% | +56.26% | +55.87% |
| DuPont · ROE decomposition | |||||||||
| Net margin | +19.71% | +21.88% | +15.36% | +23.51% | +31.66% | +23.54% | +23.76% | +23.84% | +23.87% |
| Asset turnover (× revenue / assets) | +58.02% | +57.67% | +53.31% | +57.22% | +57.95% | +54.51% | +57.23% | +56.26% | +55.87% |
| Equity multiplier (× assets / equity) | +533.12% | +459.29% | +589.18% | +551.55% | +423.88% | +525.12% | +486.94% | +500.92% | +521.57% |
Activity & efficiency
Turnover ratios and days-outstanding — how efficiently the business converts assets and working capital into sales and cash.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | |||||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Fixed-asset turnover | 3.15 | 2.81 | 2.64 | 2.63 | 2.64 | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory turnover | 1.88 | 1.54 | 1.23 | 1.11 | 0.77 | — | — | — | — |
| Receivables turnover | 3.48 | 3.33 | 3.01 | 3.39 | 3.23 | — | — | — | — |
| Payables turnover | 4.38 | 3.43 | 2.73 | 2.61 | 1.96 | — | — | — | — |
| Days outstanding | |||||||||
| Days sales outstanding (DSO) | 104.75 | 109.45 | 121.25 | 107.58 | 112.87 | — | — | — | — |
| Days inventory outstanding (DIO) | 193.96 | 237.27 | 297.52 | 329.05 | 474.87 | — | — | — | — |
| Days payables outstanding (DPO) | 83.38 | 106.29 | 133.94 | 139.99 | 185.85 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash conversion cycle | 215.33 | 240.44 | 284.84 | 296.64 | 401.89 | — | — | — | — |
Cash flow quality
How well reported earnings translate into operating and free cash flow, plus reinvestment intensity.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF / Net income | 1.32 | 1.21 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| FCF / Net income | 0.97 | 0.74 | -0.60 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| FCF margin | +19.02% | +16.12% | -9.24% | +0.92% | +13.77% | +1.80% | +1.86% | +1.76% | +1.86% |
| OCF margin | +26.01% | +26.58% | +12.43% | +19.58% | +25.80% | +19.22% | +19.35% | +18.85% | +19.64% |
| CapEx / Revenue | +6.99% | +10.46% | +21.66% | +18.66% | +12.03% | +17.93% | +17.44% | +17.51% | +17.77% |
| CapEx / D&A | 1.28 | 1.96 | 4.84 | 4.76 | 3.93 | — | — | — | — |
| Stock-based comp / Revenue | +1.21% | +1.30% | +1.84% | +1.43% | +0.96% | — | — | — | — |
Per-share & shareholder yield
EPS, book value, sales, cash flow and dividends per share — plus payout / retention.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · diluted | 5.85 | 6.57 | 5.80 | 11.71 | 22.95 | 36.57 | 44.56 | 51.34 | 57.76 |
| EPS · basic | 5.85 | 6.57 | 5.83 | 11.76 | 23.00 | 37.20 | 44.18 | 52.10 | 57.18 |
| Book value / share | 9.60 | 11.34 | 12.03 | 15.79 | 29.55 | 32.92 | 39.09 | 43.56 | 45.70 |
| Tangible BV / share | -2.55 | -0.53 | -1.09 | 2.58 | 15.72 | 32.92 | 39.09 | 43.56 | 45.70 |
| Sales / share | 29.69 | 30.04 | 37.78 | 49.82 | 72.58 | 94.22 | 108.93 | 122.78 | 133.18 |
| Operating CF / share | 7.72 | 7.98 | 4.69 | 9.75 | 18.72 | 18.11 | 21.08 | 23.15 | 26.15 |
| Free cash flow / share | 5.65 | 4.84 | -3.49 | 0.46 | 9.99 | 1.70 | 2.03 | 2.16 | 2.48 |
| Dividends / share | 3.24 | 3.72 | 4.51 | 5.18 | 6.00 | 9.67 | 10.89 | 12.37 | 13.59 |
| Payout ratio | +55.30% | +56.62% | +77.65% | +44.20% | +26.09% | +43.57% | +42.07% | +42.26% | +42.75% |
| Retention ratio | +44.70% | +43.38% | +22.35% | +55.80% | +73.91% | +56.43% | +57.93% | +57.74% | +57.25% |
Growth
Year-over-year change for headline P&L lines, plus through-cycle CAGR
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 8y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-line | ||||||||||
| Revenue · YoY | — | +0.79% | +19.56% | +32.00% | +44.70% | +30.09% | +15.80% | +12.13% | +9.01% | +19.78% |
| Gross profit · YoY | — | +4.31% | +23.41% | +35.44% | +49.12% | +26.16% | +19.48% | +6.96% | +12.54% | +21.40% |
| Profit | ||||||||||
| Operating income · YoY | — | +9.08% | +24.66% | +62.24% | +69.67% | +10.40% | +16.03% | +11.46% | +8.82% | +24.62% |
| EBITDA · YoY | — | +7.68% | -1.07% | +77.73% | +83.46% | +17.66% | +18.30% | +11.56% | +9.55% | +24.86% |
| Net income · YoY | — | +11.88% | -16.08% | +102.08% | +94.88% | -3.28% | +16.88% | +12.50% | +9.13% | +22.68% |
| Operating | ||||||||||
| EBIT · YoY | — | +9.89% | -1.37% | +91.19% | +95.92% | +0.07% | +15.72% | +7.16% | +10.46% | +23.93% |
| R&D · YoY | — | +3.75% | +29.52% | +18.01% | +21.35% | +50.33% | +18.05% | +13.58% | +5.95% | +19.32% |
| Per-share | ||||||||||
| EPS · diluted · YoY | — | +12.31% | -11.72% | +101.90% | +95.99% | +59.33% | +21.85% | +15.22% | +12.52% | +33.14% |
| EPS · basic · YoY | — | +12.31% | -11.26% | +101.72% | +95.58% | +61.72% | +18.77% | +17.94% | +9.73% | +32.97% |
Credit & leverage
Balance-sheet health + interest coverage + liquidity. Coverage ratios use period-end debt and trailing interest expense.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | |||||||||
| Total debt | $16.88B | $16.24B | $25.23B | $33.64B | $42.5B | $59.88B | $70.88B | $78.43B | $84.82B |
| Net debt | $13.07B | $14.17B | $22.41B | $30.38B | $35.34B | $52.3B | $62.31B | $68.97B | $74.19B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.62 | 1.64 | 2.62 | 1.99 | 1.27 | 1.59 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.56 |
| Debt / equity | 1.84 | 1.51 | 2.32 | 2.36 | 1.60 | 2.02 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.06 |
| Debt / assets | +34.60% | +32.81% | +39.41% | +42.74% | +37.79% | +38.50% | +41.31% | +40.08% | +39.48% |
| Equity / assets | +18.76% | +21.77% | +16.97% | +18.13% | +23.59% | +19.04% | +20.54% | +19.96% | +19.17% |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| EBITDA / interest expense | 23.67 | 26.12 | 17.63 | 19.51 | 35.13 | 26.43 | 27.68 | 27.43 | 26.52 |
| Operating income / interest | 23.35 | 26.10 | 22.20 | 22.42 | 37.34 | 26.36 | 27.08 | 26.81 | 25.75 |
| Interest expense | $339.8M | $331.6M | $485.9M | $780.6M | $795.3M | $1.24B | $1.4B | $1.58B | $1.79B |
| Liquidity | |||||||||
| Current ratio | 1.23 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 1.15 | 1.58 | — | — | — | — |
| Quick ratio | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 0.78 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash ratio | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.20 | — | — | — | — |
| Working capital | $3.4B | $896.3M | -$1.57B | $4.36B | $20.4B | — | — | — | — |
| Working capital / revenue | +12.01% | +3.14% | -4.59% | +9.69% | +31.30% | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. ROE / ROA / ROC use period-end balance-sheet denominators (no average-of- period smoothing). ROIC = Operating Income × (1 − inferred effective tax rate) over invested capital, with the effective tax inferred from net-to-operating income when both are positive and a 25% default otherwise. Net debt / EBITDA, debt ratios, and interest-coverage ratios are calculated point-in-time at each fiscal year-end. TTM = trailing 4 quarters (income / cash flow summed, balance sheet = most-recent quarterly snapshot). Through-cycle CAGR in the Growth panel uses the geometric mean of first-to-last period growth across the window (positive values only).