Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$105.30
-37.75% vs spot
Sell
Spot price
$169.17
Mkt cap $28.24B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$179.00
+5.81% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
16 / 16
7 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
ATO · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
ATO · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $74.11 | $59.81 – $97.41 | -56.19% | 13.3% | D₁ 3.00, kₑ 7.4%, gₗ 3.2% | med |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $99.79 | $71.83 – $145.33 | -41.01% | — | D₀ 3.00, g₀=10.3%, gₗ=3.2%, H 5y | med |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $87.20 | $74.12 – $100.28 | -48.45% | 24.0% | 5y schedule 10.3% → 3.2%, kₑ 7.4% | high |
| Residual income | income | $76.03 | $66.90 – $85.15 | -55.06% | 13.3% | BV 73.53, ROE 8.8% → kₑ | high |
| EVA / MVA | income | $290.76 | $255.87 – $325.65 | +71.88% | 6.7% | IC 22.7B, WACC 5.0% | high |
| P/E · sector | multiple | $134.28 | $118.17 – $150.39 | -20.62% | 16.0% | EPS 7.46 × peer P/E 18.0 | med |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $56.11 | $47.69 – $64.53 | -66.83% | — | Rev/sh 25.50 × peer P/S 2.20 | med |
| EV / EBITDA | multiple | $92.90 | $81.75 – $104.05 | -45.08% | 20.0% | EBITDA × peer 11.0× − ND 9.1B | high |
| EV / EBIT | multiple | $62.32 | $52.98 – $71.67 | -63.16% | — | EBIT × peer 13.2× − ND | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | -$1.66 | -$1.41 – -$1.91 | -100.98% | — | Sales × peer 1.87× − ND | med |
| PEG-anchored | multiple | $92.55 | $78.67 – $106.43 | -45.29% | — | PEG=1, fwd EPS g 12.4% | med |
| Earnings power | intrinsic | $88.03 | $77.47 – $98.59 | -47.96% | — | NOPAT / WACC, no growth | med |
| Graham revised | intrinsic | $214.45 | $182.28 – $246.61 | +26.77% | — | EPS×(8.5+2g)·4.4/Y | low |
| Lynch P/E=g | intrinsic | $76.98 | $65.43 – $88.53 | -54.49% | — | PE = g (10.3) | low |
| Book NAV | asset | $73.53 | $69.86 – $77.21 | -56.53% | 6.7% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $26.84 | $22.81 – $30.86 | -84.14% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.65)β | × 0.65 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 7.35% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 1.85% |
| Effective tax ratet | 19.4% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 1.49% |
| Equity weight$13.6B | 59.3% |
| Debt weight$9.3B | 40.7% |
| WACC | 4.96% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 11.62% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | 12.41% |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 8.39% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | 9.87% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | 4.76% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | 10.32% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 3.17% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-09-30)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Utilities (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $179.00
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.