Macro · Nowcast
Macro nowcast & cycle
Country surprise index, OECD CLI cycle, US recession gauge, recent consensus surprises and the US fiscal snapshot — the leading-indicator layer over the macro hub.
US recession-risk gauge
0/3
no triggers active
2s10s 39.0bps · 3m10y 70.0bps · CLI —
GDPNow · real GDP
+3.3%
as of 2026-04-01
Recession probability
—
smoothed, 12m-ahead
FRED RECPROUSM156N
US public debt
—
Treasury Fiscal Data
Avg interest rate on debt
—
marketable debt
US growth / inflation regime · Investment Clock
← inflation fallinginflation rising →
Goldilocks
growth ↑ · inflation ↓ — risk-on, duration-friendly
Overheat
growth ↑ · inflation ↑ — commodities, real assets
Disinflation
growth ↓ · inflation ↓ — bonds, quality
Stagflation
growth ↓ · inflation ↑ — cash, defensives, gold
growth: rising (top) · falling (bottom)
—
as of 2026-05-01
growth momentum — · inflation momentum —
| Series | YoY | 3m accel |
|---|---|---|
| INDPRO | — | — |
| PAYEMS | — | — |
| RSAFS | — | — |
| CPIAUCSL | — | — |
| CPILFESL | — | — |
Growth = INDPRO/PAYEMS/RSAFS YoY acceleration · inflation = CPI/core-CPI YoY acceleration. A regime change fires a regime_shift signal.
Macro diffusion · breadth of improvement
US activity (3m rising)
—
0/0 series
OECD CLI (rising)
—
0/0 countries
Share rising = breadth of the expansion. >60% broad-based growth · <40% broad-based weakness.
| Series | 3m change | Dir |
|---|---|---|
| INDPRO | — | — |
| PAYEMS | — | — |
| RSAFS | — | — |
| HOUST | — | — |
| PERMIT | — | — |
| DGORDER | — | — |
| PCEC96 | — | — |
Macro-surprise index · data vs consensus (90d)
No surprise data yet.
OECD CLI cycle clock
No OECD CLI data yet.
Biggest recent surprises (high-importance releases)
No recent releases yet.