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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | |||||||||
| Revenue | $1.83B | $2.55B | $3.04B | $3.38B | $3.74B | $4.19B | $4.6B | $5.05B | $5.31B |
| Cost of revenue | $608M | $720M | $764M | $836M | $989M | $1.08B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.38B |
| Gross profit | $1.23B | $1.83B | $2.28B | $2.54B | $2.75B | $3.05B | $3.46B | $3.67B | $3.93B |
| Gross margin | +66.85% | +71.78% | +74.88% | +75.25% | +73.57% | +72.79% | +75.14% | +72.77% | +74.01% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| Research & development | $368M | $518M | $2.31B | $604M | $648M | $1.52B | $1.72B | $1.89B | $1.99B |
| Selling, general & administrative | $682M | $999M | $1.76B | $1.17B | $1.53B | $1.88B | $2.11B | $2.18B | $2.38B |
| Total operating expenses | $1.31B | $1.77B | $4.42B | $2.05B | $2.18B | $3.72B | $4.14B | $4.48B | $4.57B |
| Operating income | -$86M | $62M | -$2.14B | $489M | $576M | -$554.36M | -$603.42M | -$678.01M | -$714.09M |
| Operating margin | -4.69% | +2.43% | -70.41% | +14.48% | +15.39% | -13.22% | -13.11% | -13.43% | -13.46% |
| EBITDA | -$59M | $109M | -$2.09B | $556M | $655M | -$496.55M | -$523.07M | -$594.17M | -$609.3M |
| EBIT | -$86M | $62M | -$2.14B | $489M | $556M | -$564.31M | -$613.53M | -$696.54M | -$726.83M |
| Below the line | |||||||||
| Interest expense | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Interest income | $2M | $17M | $81M | $66M | $57M | $83.45M | $92.1M | $101.58M | $109.96M |
| Other income / expense | $14M | $9M | $81M | $63M | -$20M | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | -$72M | $71M | -$2.06B | $552M | $556M | -$518.62M | -$564.1M | -$602.47M | -$627.93M |
| Income tax expense | $1M | -$357M | -$439M | $95M | $109M | -$92.32M | -$104.69M | -$114.38M | -$116.35M |
| Earnings | |||||||||
| Net income | -$73M | $428M | -$1.62B | $457M | $447M | -$390.83M | -$433.4M | -$458.05M | -$504.62M |
| Net income · continuing ops | -$73M | $428M | -$1.62B | $457M | $447M | -$379.24M | -$418.45M | -$468.78M | -$483.66M |
| Net margin | -3.98% | +16.78% | -53.32% | +13.53% | +11.95% | -9.32% | -9.42% | -9.07% | -9.51% |
| EPS · basic | $-0.26 | $0.28 | $-12.43 | $1.69 | $1.71 | $2.51 | $3.15 | $3.79 | $4.27 |
| EPS · diluted | $-0.26 | $0.28 | $-12.43 | $1.58 | $1.60 | $2.43 | $2.98 | $3.60 | $4.05 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $2.15 | $2.43 | $2.76 | $3.86 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $2.74 | $3.38 | $4.69 | $4.20 |
| Shares · basic | 276.65M | 276.65M | 130.62M | 264.64M | 261.35M | 263.35M | 260.83M | 261.75M | 261.12M |
| Shares · diluted | 276.65M | 276.65M | 130.62M | 289.16M | 279.62M | 279.28M | 280.93M | 278.17M | 281.85M |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 22 | 22 | 16 | 15 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 20 | 21 | 13 | 11 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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